Bodo Weber on lithium: Parallels with colonialism are understandable

Danas noted that the public learned about Scholz’s visit to Belgrade last week, when a memorandum on lithium mining was signed, just two days prior to his arrival.

His arrival was reported by the opposition and independent media, meaning that until the very last moment, the government concealed this “major” event.

Weber said Scholz’s spokesperson attempted to justify the last-minute announcement of the Chancellor’s trip to Belgrade by saying that the Serbian government only approved the memorandum with the European Union (EU) shortly before the visit. However, said Weber, this confirms that everything was prepared in haste and in utmost secrecy, directly contradicting Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic's assertion that everything is done transparently.

In the Western Balkans over the past decade, Western actors have engaged in numerous secretive and entirely non-transparent negotiations – from the Serbia-Kosovo dialogue on the so-called border territory to negotiations between the EU and US in Bosnia and Herzegovina regarding the so-called electoral reform law, said Weber. This secrecy, he added, reflects two key aspects: first, it entails dubious deals where the involved parties are fully aware of the questionable nature of their endeavors, and second, Western actors show little concern for the significant damage left in the wake of these agreements once their primary goals are achieved.

The Memorandum of understanding on a strategic partnership between Serbia and the EU on sustainable raw materials, battery value chains and electric vehicles was signed last Friday in Belgrade.

Weber said that, in the context of the Friday events, some Serbian government officials even announced Serbia’s unrealistic accession to the EU in a few years’ time, while the EU memorandum with Serbia places Rio Tinto, cooperation in the field of rare critical raw materials, batteries, and electric vehicles in the context of the European Commission's Growth Plan.

However, he said the fact that Europe is now trading these specific industrial interests in Serbia for all other interests – Kosovo, democracy, EU integration – does not mean that the German government is abandoning the political goal of Serbia's EU integration – this will strengthen actors such as Hungary or other skeptics of enlargement policy, who advocate for the staged accession model as a partially concealed endorsement for ending enlargement or granting second-class EU membership or who misuse geopolitical arguments to advocate for Western Balkan states' membership without ensuring they meet democratic reform conditions.

Weber said it seems that Scholz’s Friday visit marked the beginning of the third phase of the West’s decade-long policy of appeasement towards Serbia, with the leading role of the EU and Germany towards Aleksandar Vucic's regime.

He said Belgrade and Pristina have begun to exploit the strategic vacuum in the Kosovo-Serbia dialogue to undermine it and misuse it for their own purposes. There was the first phase of appeasement policy, trading democracy for Kosovo, which allowed Vucic's authoritarian-autocratic transformation of Serbia, Weber explained. Then the tragic, unplanned symbiosis of Merkel-Vucic, which left the German Chancellor and the entire West empty-handed both on Kosovo and on democracy, he said. With the war in Ukraine, when Vucic came under the most pressure in the Balkans with his policy of “sitting between two chairs,” instead of making a strategic turn towards Belgrade, the West started the second phase of that policy – trading democracy and Kosovo for the export of weapons to Ukraine, said Weber.

In addition to the moral implications and the fact that the West betrayed its own liberal-democratic principles, the tragedy of this three-phase appeasement policy is in that, when it comes to Vucic’s regime, it has provenly failed, said Weber.

While this policy of trading one interest for another may momentarily satisfy one objective, it profoundly undermines Germany's, the EU's, and the West's other strategic interests in the long term, leading to immeasurable consequences, Weber explained.

Asked if all this means that the EU will turn a blind eye to the level of democracy in Serbia thanks to the lithium “deal” because, as argued by the opposition and critical public, economic interests take precedence over everything else, Weber said this it already evident: both EU and German officials now place emphasis on environmental protection issues, yet over the past few days there has been no mention of democracy and rule of law aspects.

He noted that both EU and German legislation on supply chains, as well as responsible mining standards adopted voluntarily by companies such as Mercedes, emphasize not only environmental protection but also uphold key principles like respect for human rights, the rule of law, and inclusive democratic decision-making processes involving local communities. All political and legal actions related to the revival of the Rio Tinto project indicate consistent violations of these principles and standards, said Weber.

Asked if lithium mining in Serbia means that it is becoming a European colony, Weber said that, in this context, it is completely understandable that a parallel is drawn with era of colonialism. However, he said, the context needs to be clarified: the pursuit of lithium and other scarce critical raw materials occurs within the framework of 'green transition' economies, meaning it aligns with the global priority of combating climate change, the foremost political objective today, making it a fully justified policy.

The policy of the EU and Germany experiences (geo)political consequences of dependence on authoritarian global actors, so prioritizing independence from China in the supply of rare raw materials is both purposeful and legitimate, he said.

However, Weber added, the critical issue arises when the West, specifically the EU and Germany, in competing with China, start behaving like authoritarian global rivals, and disregard their own democratic values. The West risks winning the battle but losing the war to uphold the liberal world order, he stressed.

Asked if the strong opposition to lithium mining from Serbian citizens could threaten Aleksandar Vucic's regime, Weber said that, despite the intense and secretive preparations, he doubts that what was signed on Friday will be implemented if broader citizen protests occur in Serbia in the coming period.