Does the opposition have a chance to win Belgrade in the upcoming election?

Whether the optimism of the opposition parties is justified can be seen based on the results of last year's local elections in Belgrade, combined with the trend of consolidation in the ranks of the opposition.

In the elections for councilors in the Belgrade City Assembly in April 2022, the list gathered around the Serbian Progressive Party won 38.02 percent of the votes, while the Socialist Party of Serbia got 6.99 percent. In total, the progressives and socialists had 45 percent of the votes, which was enough for them to win 56 council seats and an absolute majority.

The pro-European opposition appeared in the previous elections in three groups - United for the Victory of Belgrade (21.32 percent of the votes), Moramo (10.81 percent) and the Let's Go people coalition whose headquarters was Boris Tadić's party (2.86 percent). Collectively, those three lists received 35 percent of the votes.

Right-wing opposition parties also ran in three groups. The Nada coalition led by the Democratic Party of Serbia (which has since changed its name to the New DSS) won 6.30 percent of the vote, Zavetnici got 3.50 percent, and Dveri 3.37 percent of the vote. In total, those three right-wing parties had 13.17 percent of the votes.

In the elections scheduled for December 17, pro-European opposition parties will run on a joint list called "Serbia against violence", thus eliminating the possibility that one of them will (again) fall below the threshold. In addition, the synergy effect created by uniting a larger number of parties could contribute to a better election result for that part of the opposition than last year, so it would not be a surprise if more than 35 percent of voters trust that coalition.

The same can be said for the right-wing opposition, which will appear in two groups this time because Zavetnici and Dveri made a joint list, so winning a similar number of votes as in the 2022 elections is the least that can be expected from those parties on December 17.

With such a development of the situation, the coalition called "Serbia against violence" and two election lists of right-wing parties could together win close to fifty percent of the votes, which would guarantee them an over-half majority in the city parliament.