Potential US sanctions on NIS unlikely to severely impact Serbia, analyst says

Commenting on Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic's directive to form a team to address anticipated sanctions, Gujanicic noted that the nature and intensity of the measures remain unclear.

"NIS has already been operating under EU sanctions since 2015, which intensified in 2022. The company faces challenges in financing, sourcing equipment for its refinery, and maintaining operations," he said.

Gujanicic emphasized that the most significant concern would be disruptions in crude oil imports, as NIS refines 70-75% of imported crude in its Pancevo refinery. "If crude oil supply were hypothetically cut off, it could have severe consequences," he warned, though he added that such a scenario is unlikely.

He explained that additional sanctions could target NIS’s financing, noting that many banks have already withdrawn support. However, he observed that U.S. sanctions tend to be more effective than those imposed by the EU.

Gujanicic also pointed out that in 2022, Gazprom restructured its ownership in NIS to sidestep EU sanctions. He described the move as a "cosmetic change" unlikely to withstand more robust sanctions.

He concluded that Russia is unlikely to abandon its stake in NIS during the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. "NIS represents a minimal financial gain for Gazprom, but it holds significant political value in the region. A withdrawal before the end of the war is improbable," he said.