United Nations (UN) projections show that the population of Serbia will decrease by 1.4 million or one fifth by the middle of the century. By 2041 almost every fourth person in Serbia will be over 65. Population decline will affect the whole country, but it will not affect all parts of the country equally. Serbia’s capital of Belgrade will lose 3.8 percent of its population, while Southeastern Serbia will lose over 40 percent, said the Regional Office of the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA).
“Today’s milestone of a still-growing world population reaching 8 billion must not distract from the consequences that countries with shrinking population numbers could face if they fail to rethink the way they address demographic change,” said Florence Bauer, the Director of UNFPA’s Regional Office for Eastern Europe and Central Asia.
Globally, population growth has slowed down considerably, and has started to reverse in an increasing number of countries, most of them in Central and Eastern Europe, where a combination of outmigration and low birth rates has sent population numbers down. This affects the future of economies, social systems, and infrastructures.
“In their responses to population decline, governments tend to focus on increasing birth rates and providing people with financial incentives to have more children,” said Bauer, adding that the world has seen that this does not work.
“What is needed is a broad range of measures that make it easier for people to build a future in their own country, instead of having to look for opportunities elsewhere, and to have the number of children they desire. This requires a rethink of how countries approach demographic change,” Bauer said, adding that countries need to move away from an overemphasis on numbers and perceptions of threats, and towards seeing demographic change as an opportunity to build stronger and more inclusive societies.
With large numbers of people leaving their countries to work elsewhere, and birth rates at low levels, Eastern Europe has been the first world region to experience sustained population decline over the past decades. Currently all but one of the world’s ten fastest shrinking countries are in Central and Eastern Europe, she said.
“Of course, numbers are important, but an over-emphasis on the numeric size of populations can easily distract from what really matters for the success of population policies: creating societies in which people want to live and have families,” Bauer stressed.
The world’s population has reached 8 billion. Yet more and more countries, many of them in Eastern Europe, are seeing their populations shrink.
— UNFPA Eastern Europe & Central Asia (@unfpaeecaro) November 14, 2022
But demographic change is nothing to be afraid of. It is an opportunity to create stronger, more inclusive societies.#8BillionStrong pic.twitter.com/RZ5NkQOI8S
Evidence suggests that a mix of policies is most likely to make a difference. This includes investments in early childhood care, generous family support benefitting men and women, measures to make it easier for women and men to combine family and career duties, expanding job and housing opportunities for young people, and a fair distribution of care and household tasks between men and women.
Strengthening inclusion is also key for making countries fit for demographic change. This includes removing barriers for women, older people, immigrants and those on the margins of society to fully contribute to the economy and public life.
